{"id":520,"date":"2026-10-27T10:47:53","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T07:47:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zamansesi.com\/?p=520"},"modified":"2026-10-27T10:50:31","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T07:50:31","slug":"tahran-zirvesinin-bolgesel-guvenlige-etkisi-iran-ile-mekke-pakti-arasinda-sinirli-bir-mutabakat-testi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zamansesi.com\/?p=520","title":{"rendered":"Tahran Zirvesi’nin B\u00f6lgesel G\u00fcvenli\u011fe Etkisi; \u0130ran ile Mekke Pakt\u0131 Aras\u0131nda S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 Bir Mutabakat Testi"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Tahran’daki d\u00f6rtl\u00fc zirve, yeni bir ittifak\u0131n olu\u015fumunun i\u015fareti olarak de\u011fil, daha ziyade b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenli\u011fe dair iki farkl\u0131 tan\u0131m aras\u0131nda ortak bir kesi\u015fim noktas\u0131 bulma \u00e7abas\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. Riyad i\u00e7in acil mesele, Yemen’den gelen sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 ve sava\u015f\u0131n Suudi topraklar\u0131na daha fazla yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nlenmesidir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Tahran, \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ile Filistin ve L\u00fcbnan’daki geli\u015fmeleri g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yarak m\u00fczakerelerin yaln\u0131zca Riyad’\u0131n endi\u015felerine tek tarafl\u0131 olarak odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gerilimin Azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na Dair \u0130ki Farkl\u0131 Yakla\u015f\u0131m<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Suudi Arabistan, heyetinin Tahran ziyaretinin amac\u0131n\u0131, askeri t\u0131rmanman\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in m\u00fczakere kanallar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6te yandan \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u0130srail politikalar\u0131n\u0131, Filistin ve L\u00fcbnan’daki geli\u015fmeleri ve ABD ile \u0130srail’in \u0130ran’a y\u00f6nelik askeri eylemlerinin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin ana ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 aras\u0131nda saym\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu vurgu fark\u0131, daha temel bir anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etmektedir: Riyad’\u0131n perspektifinden Suudi Arabistan’\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi, Tahran’\u0131n Washington ve Tel Aviv ile y\u00fczle\u015fmesinin sonucuna ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmamal\u0131 ve Suudi topraklar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn konusu olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Tahran’\u0131n tutumundan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilecek mant\u0131k, gerilimin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca Suudi Arabistan’a y\u00f6nelik tehditlerin dizginlenmesiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalamayaca\u011f\u0131, \u0130ran’\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik endi\u015feleri ve L\u00fcbnan’daki geli\u015fmeler anla\u015fma d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kal\u0131rken bunun kabul edilemeyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u00fczakerelerin d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm noktas\u0131 da tam buras\u0131d\u0131r: Dosyalar\u0131n ayr\u0131lmas\u0131 acil bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131rabilir, ancak Tahran’\u0131n pazarl\u0131k g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc azalt\u0131r; t\u00fcm dosyalar\u0131n birbirine ba\u011flanmas\u0131 ise \u0130ran i\u00e7in daha fazla taviz yaratabilir, fakat \u00e7\u0131kmaz riskini art\u0131r\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yemen; Sorumluluk Y\u00fckleyen Bir Kald\u0131ra\u00e7<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Tahran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, Husilerin Suudi Arabistan’a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve Mekke Pakt\u0131 \u00fcyelerinin daha \u00f6nce bu \u00fclkede h\u0131zl\u0131 asker ve askeri kapasite konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla diplomatik yol, Riyad’a y\u00f6nelik savunma deste\u011finden ayr\u0131 de\u011fildir; m\u00fczakere ve cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k e\u015fzamanl\u0131 olarak ilerlemektedir. Tahran i\u00e7in bu durum hem f\u0131rsat hem de k\u0131s\u0131tlamad\u0131r. \u00dc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin \u00fcst d\u00fczey yetkililerinin \u0130ran’da bulunmas\u0131, onlar\u0131n hesaplar\u0131nda Tahran ile diyalo\u011fun krizin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yolunun bir par\u00e7as\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. Ancak bu konum, yerine getirilmesi kolay olmayan bir beklenti de yaratabilir: \u0130ran’\u0131n Husiler \u00fczerindeki etkisinin somut sald\u0131r\u0131 azalmas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi beklentisi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Burada etki ile kontrol aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131m yapmak gerekir. Husilerin \u0130ran ile uyumlu bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak tan\u0131mlanmas\u0131, tek ba\u015f\u0131na Tahran’\u0131n bu grubun t\u00fcm operasyonel kararlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde kontrol sahibi oldu\u011funu kan\u0131tlamaz. Bu fark\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 eden bir anla\u015fma, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7tan itibaren tam olarak uygulanmas\u0131 belirsiz taahh\u00fctlere dayanabilir. Bu nedenle Yemen, yaln\u0131zca \u0130ran’\u0131n elindeki bir bask\u0131 kozu de\u011fil, ayn\u0131 zamanda Tahran diplomasisinin g\u00fcvenilirli\u011fi i\u00e7in bir s\u0131navd\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0130srail; Siyasi Dayan\u0131\u015fmadan Askeri Taahh\u00fcde Kadar Olan Mesafe<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130srail dosyas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fczakerelere dahil edilmesi, Tahran i\u00e7in tutum a\u00e7\u0131klamaktan daha fazla i\u015flev ta\u015f\u0131maktad\u0131r. Bu ad\u0131m, zirvenin \u0130ran’dan Yemen konusunda taviz talep edilen bir toplant\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesini engelleyebilir ve gerilimin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k ilkesini g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeye dahil edebilir. Ancak \u0130ran ile siyasi dayan\u0131\u015fma ile \u0130srail’e kar\u015f\u0131 askeri taahh\u00fct kabul\u00fc aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir mesafe vard\u0131r. Sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131nanmas\u0131, ate\u015fkese destek, b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin egemenli\u011finin savunulmas\u0131 ve sava\u015f\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nlenmesi \u00e7abalar\u0131, ortak askeri cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011fa girmekle ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeyde taahh\u00fctler de\u011fildir. Zirvenin a\u00e7\u0131klanan sonucunda da b\u00f6yle bir askeri taahh\u00fcd\u00fcn kabul\u00fcne dair bir i\u015faret g\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir; yay\u0131mlanan bildiri, d\u00f6rt \u00fclkenin bar\u0131\u015f ve b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenlik de dahil olmak \u00fczere i\u015fbirli\u011finin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi amac\u0131yla g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere devam etme konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u00fcbnan ve Suriye; \u0130lkelerde Ortakl\u0131k, \u00d6rneklerde Anla\u015fmazl\u0131k<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

L\u00fcbnan dosyas\u0131nda, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131, sivillerin korunmas\u0131 ve \u00fclkenin egemenli\u011fine sayg\u0131 konusunda anla\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, Hizbullah’\u0131n konumu konusundaki anla\u015fmadan ayr\u0131 tutulmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130srail’in askeri eylemine muhalefet, zorunlu olarak \u0130ran’\u0131n t\u00fcm b\u00f6lgesel politika ve ili\u015fkilerinin kabul\u00fc anlam\u0131na gelmez. Suriye konusunda da ayn\u0131 ayr\u0131m \u00f6nemlidir: Bir \u00fclkenin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn savunulmas\u0131, kendi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6rlerin rol\u00fc veya g\u00fcvenlik yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fi konusundaki anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmez. Elbette at\u0131fta bulunulan raporlarda Suriye’ye dair belirli bir talep veya bu dosyada ortak eylem konusunda anla\u015fma do\u011frulanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu ko\u015fullarda uzla\u015fma kapasitesi, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 olarak t\u00fcm m\u00fcttefiklerin ve b\u00f6lgesel hedeflerin kabul\u00fcnden ziyade, egemenlik ve sava\u015f\u0131n \u00f6nlenmesine dair ortak dilde yatmaktad\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye ve Pakistan; G\u00fcvenlik Garantisi ile Arabuluculuk Aras\u0131nda<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Heyetlerin bile\u015fimi de anlaml\u0131yd\u0131: Suudi Arabistan Savunma Bakan\u0131, Pakistan’\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey askeri komutan\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye’nin istihbarat ba\u015fkan\u0131 Tahran’a geldi. Bu bile\u015fim, m\u00fczakerelerin siyasi mesaj\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra pratik g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131yla da ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. Ankara ve \u0130slamabad ikili bir konumda bulunmaktad\u0131r: Bir yandan varl\u0131klar\u0131 Suudi Arabistan’a destek anlam\u0131na gelirken, di\u011fer yandan \u0130ran’\u0131n endi\u015felerini g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeye ta\u015f\u0131yacak bir kanala d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilirler. \u0130kinci rol\u00fcn ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131, Tahran’\u0131n onlar\u0131 yaln\u0131zca Riyad’\u0131n taleplerinin ileticisi olarak g\u00f6rmemesine ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Reuters’in haberine g\u00f6re, \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir Pakistan g\u00fcvenlik yetkilisi m\u00fczakerelerin b\u00f6lgesel bir sald\u0131rmazl\u0131k a\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fturulmas\u0131na odakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015f, bir ba\u015fka Pakistanl\u0131 yetkili ise anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik bir \u00f6neri sunuldu\u011funu ve Mekke Pakt\u0131 \u00fcyeleri ile Katar’\u0131n garant\u00f6r olarak rol oynayabilece\u011fini bildirmi\u015ftir.<\/span><\/p>\n

As\u0131l S\u0131nav Sahada<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Tahran zirvesinin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i yol, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir ad\u0131mlar \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmakt\u0131r: Suudi Arabistan’a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na katk\u0131, yan\u0131 s\u0131ra sava\u015f\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemeye ve \u0130ran’\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik endi\u015felerini ele almaya y\u00f6nelik somut diplomatik \u00e7aba. B\u00f6yle bir yol, t\u00fcm anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar\u0131n e\u015fzamanl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc gerektirmez; hi\u00e7bir taraf\u0131n kendisine y\u00f6nelik tehdidin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, di\u011ferinin endi\u015felerine kar\u015f\u0131 sorumluluk kabul etmeden talep etmemesini gerektirir. As\u0131l risk ise g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin devam\u0131n\u0131n gerilimin dizginlenmesinin yerini almas\u0131d\u0131r. Zirve sonras\u0131nda yeni f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA’lar\u0131n tespit edildi\u011fine dair raporlar, m\u00fczakereye haz\u0131r olma beyan\u0131 ile sahadaki durumun de\u011fi\u015fmesi aras\u0131ndaki mesafenin h\u00e2l\u00e2 korundu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir. Tahran zirvesinin de\u011feri de bu mesafeyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmelidir: D\u00f6rt \u00fclke g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri uygulanabilir bir taahh\u00fcde d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrebilecek mi, yoksa m\u00fczakereler askeri geli\u015fmelerin bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda m\u0131 kalacak? Cevap, bildirilerin tonunda de\u011fil, taraflar\u0131n sonraki davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda netle\u015fecektir.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Tahran’daki d\u00f6rtl\u00fc zirve, yeni bir ittifak\u0131n olu\u015fumunun i\u015fareti olarak de\u011fil, daha ziyade b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fcvenli\u011fe dair iki farkl\u0131 tan\u0131m aras\u0131nda ortak bir kesi\u015fim noktas\u0131 bulma \u00e7abas\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. Riyad i\u00e7in acil mesele, Yemen’den gelen sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 ve sava\u015f\u0131n Suudi topraklar\u0131na daha fazla yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nlenmesidir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Tahran, \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ile Filistin ve L\u00fcbnan’daki geli\u015fmeleri g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131yarak […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":524,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,1],"tags":[103,519,520,518,517],"class_list":["post-520","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiz","category-manset","tag-bolgesel-guvenlik","tag-iran-ve-suudi-arabistan","tag-iran-suudi-arabistan-geriliminin-azaltilmasi","tag-mekke-pakti","tag-tahran-zirvesi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zamansesi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/520","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zamansesi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zamansesi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zamansesi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zamansesi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=520"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/zamansesi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/520\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":522,"href":"https:\/\/zamansesi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/520\/revisions\/522"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zamansesi.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/524"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zamansesi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=520"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zamansesi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=520"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zamansesi.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=520"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}